There are 435 seats in the House.
Some are near locks for one party or the other. Some are close. No race is a sure thing (50 state strategy) but the races that were close in 2006 are clearly the ones that are most likely to switch in 2008. One reason they might switch is fundraising. So, below the fold, I look at districts that were within 10 points in 2006
Financing info is from the FEC
Polling info is from Election Inspection
The DCCC list is here
SSP ratings are here
District AZ-01
Incumbent Renzi (R)
2006 opponent Ellen Simon
Margin and notes 52-43, remainder to a Libertarian.
Current situation
Renzi is retiring.
Allan Affeldt (D) no recent info
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) $660K raised, $465K COH
Jeff Riley (D) $220K raised, $216K COH, $205K debt
Howard Shanker (D) $137K raised, $34K COH, $9K debt
Ellen Simon (D) $13K raised, $0 COH, $252K debt
Mary Kim Titla (D) $169K raised, $49K COH
Sydney Hay (R) $268K raised, $222K COH, $70K debt
Preston Korn (R) $19K raised, $10K COH, $3K debt
Assessment AZ-01 went 54-45 for Bush, but it’s still possible.
SSP rating: Tossup
On the DCCC list
District AZ-05
Incumbent Harry Mitchell (D)
2006 opponent JD Hayworth
Margin and notes 50-46. Mitchell had a million less to work with, and Hayworth was the incumbent.
Current situation
Mitchell (D): $1.3 millon raised, $1.1 million COH
Schweikert (R): $681K raised, $514K COH, $250K debt
Ogsbury (R): $427K raised, $353K COH, $250K debt
Knaperek (R): $100K raised, $44K COH
Anderson (R): $55K raised, $70K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Leans D
On the DCCC list
District CA-04
Incumbent John Doolittle (R)
2006 opponent Charlie Brown
Margin and notes 49-46; Doolittle raised $2.4 million, Brown $1.6
Current situation
Doolittle’s done, he’s and Brown is running again.
Charlie Brown (D) $950 K raised, $590K COH, $26K debt
John Wolfgram (D) no funding info
Eric Egland (R) $193K raised, $49K COH
John Holmes (R) $26K raised, $0 COH
Tom McClintock(R) $316K raised, $126K COH
Doug Ose (R) $2.4 million raised, $801K COH, $1.0 million debt
Assessment This is a rare case where it would have been easier to run against an incumbent….but still, it bears watching.
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District CA-11
Incumbent Jerry McNerney (D)
2006 opponent Richard Pombo
Margin and notes 53-47, even though McNerney was outspent by $2 million.
Current situation
Jerry McNerney (D): $1.6 million raised, $1.1 million COH, $48K debt
Dean Andal (R): $638K raised, $531K COH, $25K debt
Assessment Bush took CA-11 by 54-45 in 2004, it’s an R+3 district. But McNerney has a fundraising lead and name recognition
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District CO-04
Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R)
2006 opponent Angie Paccione
Margin and notes 46-43, Musgrave spent over $1 million more and was the incumbent.
Current situation
Betsy Markey (D) $594K raised, $376K COH, $25K debt
Marilyn Musgrave (R) $1.4 million raised, 1.0 million COH, $16K debt
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District CT-02
Incumbent Joe Courtney (D)
2006 opponent Rob Simmons
Margin and notes 73 votes out of 242,000. Courtney got $2.4 million to Simmons $3.2. Simmons was the incumbent
Current situation
Joe Courtney (D) $1.5 million raised, $1.2 million COH
Sean Sullivan (R) $230K raised, $121K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District CT-04
Incumbent Christopher Shays (R)
2006 opponent Diane Farrell
Margin and notes 51-48. Shays raised $3.8 million, Farrell just under $3 million. Shays was the incumbent
Current situation
Jim Himes (D) $1.4 million raised, $1.1 million COH
Chris Shays (R) $1.6 million raised, $1.1 million COH
Assessment To be equal in fundraising to the incumbent is impressive.
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District FL-08
Incumbent Ric Keller (R)
2006 opponent Charlie Stuart
Margin and notes 53-46. Keller was the incumbent and raised $1.7 million. Stuart raised $1 million
Current situation
Alexander Fry (D) $19K raised, $15K COH
Alan Grayson (D) $142K raised, -$4K COH, $75K debt
Corbett Krohler (D) $59K raised, $0 COH, $54K debt
Mike Smith (D) $443K raised, $296K COH
Charles Stuart (D) $415K raised, $316K COH, $101K debt
Quoc Va Banh (D) $3K raised, $0 COH
Bob Hering (R) $69K raised, $53K COH, $20K debt
Ric Keller (R) $742K raised, $735K COH
Todd Long (R) $192K raised, $17K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
District FL-13
Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R)
2006 opponent Christine Jennings
Margin and notes 369 votes out of 237,000; Jennings raised $3 million, but Buchanan had $8 million. This was the most expensive race in the country. Katharine Harris’ old district
Current situation
Christine Jennings (D) $1.1 million, $483K COH
Vern Buchanan (R) $2.3 million raised, $1.1 million COH
Assessment
Polls: Early March – Buchanan 53, Jennings 37SSP rating:
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
District FL-16
Incumbent Tim Mahoney (D)
2006 opponent Joe Negron
Margin and notes 50-48; this was Mark Foley’s seart. Mahoney raised $2.8 million and Negron $800K
Current situation
Tim Mahoney (D) $2.1 million raised, $1.0 million COH
Gayle Harrell (R) $546K raised, $256K COH, $25K debt
Thomas Rooney (R) $691K raised, $421K COH, $25K debt
Rob Siedlecki (R) no funding info
Hal Valeche (R) no funding info
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District FL-22
Incumbent Ron Klein (D)
2006 opponent Clay Shaw
Margin and notes 51-47; Shaw, who was the incumbent, raised $5 million; Klein raised $4 million
Current situation
Ron Klein (D) $2.2 million raised, $2.1 million COH, $18K debt
Marc Flagg (R) $64K raised, $0 COH
Clay Shaw (R) $62K raised, $11K COH
Allen West (R) $101K raised, $57K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)
On the DCCC list
District GA-08
Incumbent Jim Marshall (D)
2006 opponent Mac Collins
Margin and notes 51-49; Marshall, the incumbent, held off Collins. Each raised about $2 million
Current situation
Jim Marshall (D) $1.0 million raised, $1.2 million COH, $7.5K debt
Robert Nowak (D) $10K raised, $1K COH
Rick Goddard (R) $577K raised, $404K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Leans D
On the DCCC list
District GA-12
Incumbent John Barrow (D)
2006 opponent Max Burns
Margin and notes 864 votes of 140,000, Barrow, who was the incumbent, held off Max Burns, who used to hold this seat. Each had a little over $2 million.
Current situation
John Barrow (D) $1.4 million raised, $1.3 million COH, $65K debt
Rodney Edenfield (R) $14K raised, $0 COH
Raymond McKinney (R) $35K raised, $10K COH, $17K debt
John Stone (R) $61K raised, $43K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District ID-01
Incumbent Bill Sali (R)
2006 opponent Larry Grant
Margin and notes 50-45, Sali raised $1 million, Grant about $750K
Current situation
Walter Minnick (D) $629K raised, $321K COH
Bill Sali (R) $405K raised, $124K COH, $145K debt
Matt Salisbury (R) $41K raised, $5K debt
Assessment ID-01 is about as Republican as districts get – Cook PVI of R + 19. But Sali is crazy. Larry Grant withdrew and endorsed Minnick.
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
District IL-06
Incumbent Peter Roskam (R)
2006 opponent Tammy Duckworth
Margin and notes 51-49. This is Henry Hyde’s old seat, it was open in 2006, and Duckworth raised more than Roskam ($4.5 million to $3.5 million)
Current situation
Jill Morgenthaler (D) $307K raised, $161K COH, $10K debt
Peter Roskam (R) $1.4 million raised, $967K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
District IL-08
Incumbent Melissa Bean (D)
2006 opponent David McSweeney
Margin and notes 51-44. Bean, the incumbent, held off David McSweeney, although he raised $5.1 million to her $4.3 million, and this is a R+5 district.
Current situation
Melissa Bean (D) $2.2 million raised, $1.4 million COH, $17K debt
Randi Scheuer (D) no funding info
Steve Greenberg (R) $522K raised, $5K COH, $153K debt
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District IL-10
Incumbent Mark Kirk (R)
2006 opponent Dan Seals
Margin and notes 53-47. Kirk, the incumbent, raised $3.5 million to Seals’ $1.8 million.
Current situation
Dan Seals (D) $1.47 million raised, $745K COH
Mark Kirk (R) $2.95 million raised, $2.92 million COH
Assessment
Polls: Early Feb. Kirk 46 Seals 39
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District IN-02
Incumbent Joe Donnelly (D)
2006 opponent Chris Chocola
Margin and notes 54-46. Donnelly ousted Chocola, though he had less than half as much money (1.5 million to 3.4 million)
Current situation
Joe Donnelly (D) $1.1 million raised, $713K COH, $49K debt
Luke Puckett (R) $5K raised, $0 COH
Joseph Roush (R) no funding info
Anthony Zirkle (R) no funding info
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District IN-03
Incumbent Mark Souder (R)
2006 opponent Thomas Hayhurst
Margin and notes 54-46. Souder, the incumbent, and Hayhurst each raised about $700K
Current situation
Michael Montagno (D) $205K raised, $181K COH
Mark Souder (R) $315K raised, $211K COH
Assessment For an incumbent in a close race, Souder’s fundraising is pretty anemic.
SSP rating: Not rated
District IN-09
Incumbent Baron Hill (D)
2006 opponent Mike Sodrel
Margin and notes 50-45. Hill ousted Sodrel, despite raising less ($1.9 million to $2.7 million)
Current situation
Baron Hill (D) $1.1 million raised, $862K COH, $49K debt
Mike Sodrel (R) $201K raised, $166K COH, $1.2 million (!) in debt
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District IA-02
Incumbent Dave Loebsack (D)
2006 opponent Jim Leach
Margin and notes 51-49; Loebsack ousted Leach; each raised about $500K
Current situation
Dave Loebsack (D) $561K raised, $425K COH
Lee Harder (R) $9K raised, $5K COH, $1K debt
Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) $68K raised, $68K COH
Peter Teahen (R) $66K raised, $34K COH, $32K debt
Assessment
SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)
District IA-03
Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D)
2006 opponent Jeff Lamberti
Margin and notes 52-46. Boswell, the incumbent, and Lamberti each raised about $2 million
Current situation
Leonard Boswell (D) $983K raised, $841K COH
Ed Fallon (D) $172K raised, $20K COH, $17K debt
Kim Schmett (R) $70 (no K!) raised, $70 COH, $700 debt.
Assessment $70? Is that a joke?
SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)
On the DCCC list
District KS-02
Incumbent Nancy Boyda (D)
2006 opponent Jim Ryun
Margin and notes 51-47. Boyda ousted Ryun, raising $700K to his $1 million. In 2004, Boyda lost to Ryun, 56-41.
Current situation
Nancy Boyda (D) $993K raised, $811K COH, $287K debt
Lynn Jenkins (R) $682K raised, $426K COH, $101K debt
Jim Ryun (R) $1.2 million, $489K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District KY-03
Incumbent John Yarmuth (D)
2006 opponent Anne Northrup
Margin and notes 51-48. Yarmuth ousted Northrup, he raised about $2.2 million to her $3.4 million.
Current situation
John Yarmuth (D) $1.0 million raised, $811 COH
Bob DeVore (R) no funding info
Corley Everett (R) no funding info
Anne Northrup (R) $494K raised, $428K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District KY-04
Incumbent Geoff Davis (R)
2006 opponent Ken Lucas
Margin and notes 52-43. Davis, the incumbent, raised $4.2 million to hold off Ken Lucas, who raised $1.5 million
Current situation
Michael Kelley (D) $7 K raised, $3K COH, $3K debt
Geoff Davis (R) $1.4 million raised, $720K COH, $85K debt
G. E. Puckett (R) no funding info
Warren Stone (R) no funding info
Assessment
SSP rating: Not rated (very likely R)
District MI-07
Incumbent Tim Walberg (R)
2006 opponent Sharon Renier
Margin and notes 50-46. The seat was open and Renier raised only $55K to Walberg’s $1.2 million.
Current situation
Sharon Renier (D) $2 K raised, $45 (no K) COH, $5K debt
Mark Schauer (D) $905 K raised, $751 K COH
Tim Walberg (R) $830 K raised, $604 K COH
Assessment Very impressive to be outraising an incumbent.
Polls: Feb/March – Walberg 51 Schauer 40
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District MI-09
Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R)
2006 opponent Nancy Skinner
Margin and notes 52-46. Knollenberg, first elected in 1992, raised $3 million. Skinner raised about $400K
Current situation
Gary Peters (D) $750K raised, $645K COH, $2K debt
Joe Knollenberg (R) $1.8 million raised, $1.3 million COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District MN-01
Incumbent Tim Walz (D)
2006 opponent Gil Gutnecht
Margin and notes 53-47. Walz ousted Gutnecht relatively easily, raising about $1.3 million to Gutnecht’s $1.7 million
Current situation
Tim Walz (D) $1.6 million raised, $1.0 million COH
Brian Davis (R) $222 K raised, $50K COH, $34K debt
Dick Day (R) $226K raised, $72K COH, $23K debt
Randy Demmer (R) $223K raised, $3K COH, $119K debt
Mark Meyer (R) $27K raised, $0 COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District MN-06
Incumbent Michele Bachmann (R)
2006 opponent Patty Wetterling
Margin and notes 50-42. This seat was open and Wetterling actually raised a bit more than Bachmann ($3million to $2.7 million)
Current situation
Bob Olson (D) $268K raised, $112K COH, $160K debt
Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) $260K raised, $102K COH
Michele Bachman (R) $1.5 million raised, $1.0 million COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
District NV-02
Incumbent Dean Heller (R)
2006 opponent Jill Derby
Margin and notes 50-45. The seat was open, Derby and Heller each raised about $1.6 million
Current situation
Jill Derby (D) $144K raised, $134K COH
Dean Heller (R) $981K raised, $808K COH, $370K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
District NV-03
Incumbent Jon Porter (R)
2006 opponent Tessa Hafen
Margin and notes 48-47. Porter, the incumbent, raised $3 million to Hafen’s $1.5
Current situation
Robert Daskas (D) $584K raised, $453K COH
Andrew Martin (D) $379K raised, $204K COH, $295K debt
Jon Porter (R) $1.6 million raised, $1.0 million COH, $14K debt
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District NH-01
Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D)
2006 opponent Jeb Bradley
Margin and notes 51-49. An amazing race. Bradley, the incumbent, raised over $1 million. Shea-Porter raised less than $300K.
Current situation
Carol Shea-Porter (D) $663K raised, $546K COH
Jeb Bradley (R) $566K raised, $516K COH, $300K debt
John Stephen (R) $337K raised, $258K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District NH-02
Incumbent Paul Hodes (D)
2006 opponent Charles Bass
Margin and notes 53-46. Hodes ousted Bass (who had beaten him by 20 points in 2004) raising $1.6 million to Bass’ $1.2
Current situation
Grant Bosse (R) $15K raised, $10K COH
Bob Clegg (R) $120K raised, $86K raised, $100K debt
Jennifer Horn (R) $71K raised, $31K COH, $15K debt
Jim Steiner (R) $14K raised, $11K COH
Paul Hodes(D) $1.3 million raised, $832K COH, $157K debt
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District NJ-07
Incumbent Michael Ferguson (R) who is retiring
2006 opponent Linda Stender
Margin and notes 49-48. Ferguson, the incumbent, raised $3 million and just held off Stender, who raised almost $2 million
Current situation
Linda Stender (D) $1.0 million raised, $840K COH
Kelly Hatfield $106K raised, $94K COH, $60K debt
Michael Hsing $16K raised, $13K COH
Leonard Lance $294K raised, $256K COH, $139K debt
Martin Marks $123K raised, $104K COH, $75K debt
Thomas Roughneen No funding info
Victor Sorillo No funding info
Kate Whitman $444K raised, $307K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Tossup
On the DCCC list
District NM-01
Incumbent Heather Wilson retiring
2006 opponent Patricia Madrid
Margin and notes 861 votes out of 210,000. Wilson, the incumbent, raised $4.9 million to Madrid’s $3.4 million
Current situation
Joseph Carraro no funding info
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) $224K raised, $139K COH, $6K debt
Martin Heinrich (D) $666K raised, $342 COH, $1K debt
Robert Pidcock (D) $36K raised, $9K COH, $34K debt
Rebecca Vigil-Giron (D) $6K raised, $2K COH, $15K debt
Darren White (R) $46K raised, $297K COH
Assessment Looks good.
Polls: October – White 51 Heinrich 33
SSP rating: Tossup
On the DCCC list
District NY-19
Incumbent John Hall (D)
2006 opponent Sue Kelly
Margin and notes 51-49. Hall ousted Kelly, raising $1.6 million to her $2.5 million
Current situation
John Hall (D) $1.5 million raised, $1.1 million COH.
George Oros (R) $62K raised, $60K COH, $10K debt
Kieran Lalor (R) $87K raised, $63K COH, $13K debt
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District NY-20
Incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
2006 opponent John Sweeney
Margin and notes 53-47. Gillibrand ousted Sweeney farily easily, raising $2.5 million to his $3.4
Current situation
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) $3.1 million raised, $2.5 million COH
Michael Rocque (R) $222K raised, $52K COH
Alexander Treadwell (R) $1.68 million raised, $929K COH
Richard Wager (R) $415K raised, $197 COH
John Wallace (R) $74K raised, $4 K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District NY-24
Incumbent Michael Arcuri (D)
2006 opponent Ray Meier
Margin and notes 54-45. Arcuri raised $2.2 million to Meier’s $1.6 million for this open seat
Current situation
Michael Arcuri (D) $919K raised $591K COH
No opponents
Assessment So far, it’s a free ride
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District NY-25
Incumbent James Walsh (R)
2006 opponent Dan Maffei
Margin and notes 51-49. Walsh, the incumbent, raised $1.8 million to hold off Maffei, who raised $900K
Current situation Walsh is retiring.
Dan Maffei (D) $847K raised $676K COH
Dale Sweetland (R) No funding info
David Gay (R) No funding info
Assessment Hehe. An open seat, in a swing district, and neither GOP candidate has even filed reports with the FEC
Polls: February Maffei 41 Cappuccilli 29 (but Cappuccilli has quit)
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District NY-26
Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R)
2006 opponent Jack Davis
Margin and notes 52-48. Davis raised $2.4 million to Reynolds’ $5.3
Current situation Reynolds is retiring.
Jack Davis (D) No funding info
Alice Kryzan (D) $287K raised, $207 COH $97K debt
Jon Powers (D) $598K raised, $402K COH
No Republican has filed
Assessment Will the Republicans find anyone?
SSP rating: Tossup
On the DCCC list
District NY-29
Incumbent Randy Kuhl (R)
2006 opponent Eric Massa
Margin and notes 51-49. Kuhl and Massa each raised about $1.5 million, but Massa couldn’t knock Kuhl out
Current situation
Eric Massa (D) $868K raised, $565K COH
Randy Kuhl (R) $628K raised $366K COH
Assessment Massa continues to out-raise the incumbent (1st Q Massa got $278K to Kuhl’s $111. Prime pickup
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District NC-08
Incumbent Robin Hayes (R)
2006 opponent Larry Kissell
Margin and notes 329 votes out of 121,000. Hayes, the incumbent, raised $2.5 million, Kissell almost won, raising just $800K
Current situation
Larry Kissell (D) $392K raised, $137K COH
Robin Hayes (R) $1.3 million raised, $793K COH
Assessment
Polls: November – Kissell 49 Hayes 47
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District NC-11
Incumbent Heath Shuler (D)
2006 opponent Charles Taylor (R)
Margin and notes Shuler raised $1.8 million to oust Taylor, who raised $4.4 million
Current situation
Heath Shuler (D) $795 K raised, $626K COH
John Armor (R) no funding info
Spence Campbell (R) $188K raised, $29K COH
Carol Mumpower (R) $3K raised, $1K COH, $3K debt
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
District OH-01
Incumbent Steve Chabot (R)
2006 opponent John Cranley
Margin and notes 52-48. Chabot, the incumbent, raised $3 million to Cranley’s $2 million
Current situation
Steven Dreihaus (D) $695K raised, $567K COH
Steve Chabot (R) $1.3 million raised, $1.1 million COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District OH-02
Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R)
2006 opponent Victoria Wulsin (D)
Margin and notes 50-49. Schmidt, the incumbent, raised $2 million to Wulsin’s $1 million
Current situation
Victoria Wulsin (D) $771K raised, $211K COH, $21K debt
Jean Schmidt (R) $566K raised, $177K COH, $277K debt
Assessment To be outraising the incumbent is good.
Polls: Mid March – Schmidt 51 Wulsin 33
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District OH-15
Incumbent Deborah Pryce (R)
2006 opponent Mary Jo Kilroy
Margin and notes 1,055 votes of 220,000. Pryce, the incumbent, raised $4.7 millon, Kilroy raised $2.7 million
Current situation Pryce is retiring.
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) $1.2 million raised, $944K COH, $62K debt
Steve Stivers (R) $789K COH, $600K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Tossup
On the DCCC list
District PA-04
Incumbent Jason Altmire (D)
2006 opponent Melissa Hart
Margin and notes 52-48. Altmire raised $1.1 million to oust Hart, who raised $2.2 million
Current situation
Jason Altmire (D) $1.6 million raised, $1.3 million COH, $1K debt
Melissa Hart (R) $529K raised, $323K COH
Assessment If Hart can’t win, as the incumbent, with a fundraising edge, can she win as a challenger with a big deficit?
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District PA-06
Incumbent Jim Gerlach (R)
2006 opponent Lois Murphy
Margin and notes 51-49. Murphy (who also ran in 2004) raised $4 million to Gerlach’s $3.5 million
Current situation
Bob Roggio (D) $205K raised, $168K COH, $60K debt
Jim Gerlach (R) $1.5 million raised, $715K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
District PA-08
Incumbent Patrick Murphy (D)
2006 opponent Mike Fitzpatrick
Margin and notes 1,518 votes of 250,000. Murphy raised $2.4 million to oust Fitzpatrick, who raised $3.2 million
Current situation
Patrick Murphy (D) $2.2 million raised, $1.7 million COH, $1K debt
Thomas Manion (R) $422K raised, $417K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District PA-10
Incumbent Christopher Carney (D)
2006 opponent Don Sherwood
Margin and notes 53-47. Carney raised $1.5 million to oust Sherwood, who raised $2.3 million
Current situation
Christopher Carney (D) $1.3 million raised, $967K COH
Chris Hackett (R) $931K raised, $175K COH, $490K debt
Dan Meuser (R) $1.5 million raised, $70K COH, $925K debt
Assessment
Polls: December – Carney 53 Meuser 23
Carney 55 Hackett 21
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District TX-23
Incumbent Ciro Rodriguez (D)
2006 opponent Henry Bonilla
Margin and notes 54-46 in special runoff. Only 70,000 votes. Rodriguez raised $1 million to oust Bonilla who raised $3.8 million.
Current situation No Republican opponent
Assessment Free ride
SSP rating: Likely D
On the DCCC list
District VT-AL
Incumbent Peter Welch (D)
2006 opponent Martha Rainville
Margin and notes 53-45. This seat was open after Bernie Sanders got elected to the Senate
Current situation No declared Republicans
Assessment So far, a free ride. VT’s filing doesn’t close until July 22 though. Welch has $828K COH
SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)
District VA-02
Incumbent Thelma Drake (R)
2006 opponent Phil Kellam (D)
Margin and notes 51-48. Drake, the incumbent, raised $2.3 million to hold off Kellam, who raised $1.7 million
Current situation
Glenn Nye (D) $253K raised, $223K COH
Thelma Drake (R) $1.0 million raised, $594K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
District WA-08
Incumbent Dave Reichert (R)
2006 opponent Darcy Burner
Margin and notes 51-49. Reichert, the incumbent, and Burner each raised $3 million
Current situation
Darcy Burner (D) $1.4 million raised, $922K COH, $24K debt
Dave Reichert (R) $1.4 million raised, $698K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean R
On the DCCC list
District WI-08
Incumbent Steve Kagen (D)
2006 opponent John Gard
Margin and notes 51-49. This seat was open. Kagen raised $3.2 million ot Gard’s $2.8 million
Current situation
Steve Kagen (D) $1.1 million raised, $760K raised, $469K debt
John Gard (R) $555K raised, $428K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Lean D
On the DCCC list
District WY-AL
Incumbent Barbara Cubin (R)
2006 opponent Gary Trauner
Margin and notes 1,012 votes of 200,000. The Libertarian got 7,481.
Current situation Cubin is retiring (what a shame!)
Gary Trauner (D) $648K raised, $550K COH, $500 debt
Kenn Gilchrest (R) no funding info
Mark Gordon (R) $412K raised, $86K COH
Cynthia Lummis (R) $171K raised, $141K COH
Swede Nelson (R) no funding info
Dan Zwonitzer (R) $9K raised, $4K COH
Assessment
SSP rating: Likely R
On the DCCC list
Couple of quick quibbles that I caught:
SSP actually rates GA08 and AZ-05 as “Leans D” (for now)
Good summary, though!
NE-02 was also slightly under 10% in 2006. (About a 9.5% margin of victory for the Republican).
In FL-13 Buchannon was not the incumbent. Also, I’m pretty sure Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson is running against Ciro Rodriguez. I’d disagree with a couple of the ratings too.
Jim “Himes” – It’s mistyped as Jim Hines right now.
Crazy millionaire Jack Davis is running again, unfortunately.
I’m a bit worried about this one. I really thought the DCCC dropped the ball in ’06, when I saw Hayes as very vulnerable. The problem is that there will be about double the turnout this year. Hayes always seems to have an easier time in Presidential years. Hope I’m wrong – I’d love to see Kissel win. I just fear that this was a lost opportunity.
one (or maybe two) races that were missing: IN-07, which was won by Julia Carson 54-46 (although Andre Carson won the special by more than 10%), and TX-22, where Nick Lampson beat Snelly Gibr 51.97-41.93 (a 10.04% margin, but I don’t know what your rounding policy was).
Also seven of our big pickups from last cycle aren’t on the list, but that’s because they were all by a wider than 10% margin! AZ-08, CO-07, CT-05, IN-08, IA-01, OH-18, and PA-07 were all a bigger margin than that, the type of margin that’s usually reserved for incumbents.
One more bit of trivia: of the 58 ‘close’ races, only six of them were Democratic defensive holds (GA-08, GA-12, IL-08, IA-03, VT-AL, and IN-07), and we won all of them. Also, the Republicans won 29 of the ‘close’ races, but seven of those successfully defended seats last cycle are now open seats this cycle (AZ-01, CA-04, NJ-07, NM-01, NY-25, NY-26, and OH-15).